中期数值降雨预报在汛限水位动态控制中应用研究

定义中期数值降雨预报最大可利用预见期、最大可利用预见量和实时预见期折减系数3个参数,对中期数值降雨预报信息进行预处理,且给出评估中期预报精度的指标以及指标的求解方法;然后利用上述3个参数,对汛限水位实时动态控制相对安全期进行定义,进而提出利用中期预报进行汛限水位动态控制的实时相对安全期法.对该方法风险分析过程就是对上述3个参数的优选过程.基于此,分别定义评估风险、风险效益以及调度决策者承受风险能力的指标,建立控制风险在决策者承受能力内而追求风险效益最大的风险分析模型,即参数优选模型.浑江上游桓仁-回龙库群试用结果表明,经济效益显著.

Dynamic control method of flood limited water level based on mid-term numerical precipitation forecast

With introducing three parameters of max available lead time, max available forecasting magnitude and reduction factor of real-time lead time for mid-term precipitation forecast, the mid-term numerical precipitation predication information is pretreated, and then for evaluating the mid-term forecast precision, the precision indicators are defined and the evaluating means is given. Around defining the real-time relatively-safe period of dynamic control, the real-time relatively-safe period method, with the above-mentioned three parameters, is proposed, on which the process of risk analysis is just the one of parametric optimization. Therefore, for optimizing the parameters, a model is constructed adopting a strategy of controlling risk within the decision-makers affordability followed by pursuing the biggest risk-benefit, with defining the indicators of dynamic control risk and risk-benefit and the indicators of capability of decision-makers enduring risk. Huanren-Huilong reservoir group in Hunjiang River upstream basin of Northeast China is employed to validate the method, and the results demonstrate that economic benefits are marked.