| 基于随机分布函数的分年龄别生育率组合模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 虞丽萍,袁景淇.基于随机分布函数的分年龄别生育率组合模型[J].上海交通大学学报,2006,40(9):1613-1616. |
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| 作者姓名： | 虞丽萍 袁景淇 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海交通大学,电子信息与电气工程学院,上海,200240 |
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| 摘 要： | 分年龄别生育率是人口统计学的重要指标,它可以用基于随机分布函数的生育率模型来描述.文中介绍了对数正态分布模型和泊松分布模型,在此基础上构造了生育率组合模型.仿真结果表明,与单一模型相比,组合模型精度更高,其适用范围也更广泛.
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| 关 键 词： | 分年龄别生育率 对数正态分布模型 泊松分布模型 组合模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-2467(2006)09-1613-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-09-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年9月15日 |
A Composite Age-Specific Fertility Rate Model Based on Random Distribution Functions |
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| YU Li-ping,YUAN Jing-qi.A Composite Age-Specific Fertility Rate Model Based on Random Distribution Functions[J].Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University,2006,40(9):1613-1616. |
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| Authors: | YU Li-ping YUAN Jing-qi |
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| Institution: | School of Electronic, Information and Electrical Eng. , Shanghai Jiaotong Univ. , Shanghai 200240, China |
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| Abstract: | Age-specific fertility rate is one of the most important indexes in demography.Random distribution functions are usually used for modeling of the age-specific fertility rate.This paper presented two fertility rate models,i.e., lognormal distribution model and Poisson distribution model.Based on these two models,a composite model was proposed.By analyzing the result of simulation,the composite model can improve the model accuracy,and work well with a variety of population data. |
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| Keywords: | age-specific fertility rate lognormal distribution model Poisson distribution model composite model |
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