The climatic suitability for maize cultivation in China |
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Authors: | He QiJin Zhou GuangSheng |
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Institution: | (1) Centre for Plant Diversity and Systematics, Plant Science Laboratories, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Reading, Reading, Berks, England, RG6 6AS, UK |
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Abstract: | To provide scientific support for planning maize production and designing countermeasures against the effects of climate change
on the national maize crop, we analyzed the climatic suitability for cultivating maize across China. These analyses were based
on annual climate indices at the Chinese national level; these indices influence the geographical distribution of maize cultivation.
The annual climate indices, together with geographical information on the current cultivation sites of maize, the maximum
entropy (MaxEnt) model, and the ArcGIS spatial analysis technique were used to analyze and predict maize distribution. The
results show that the MaxEnt model can be used to study the climatic suitability for maize cultivation. The eight key climatic
factors affecting maize cultivation areas were the frost-free period, annual average temperature, ⩾0°C accumulated temperature,
⩾10°C accumulated temperature continuous days, ⩾10°C accumulated temperature, annual precipitation, warmest month average
temperature, and humidity index. We classified climatic zones in terms of their suitability for maize cultivation, based on
the existence probability determined using the MaxEnt model. Furthermore, climatic thresholds for a potential maize cultivation
zone were determined based on the relationship between the dominant climatic factors and the potential maize cultivation area.
The results indicated that the importance and thresholds of main climate controls differ for different maize species and maturities,
and their specific climatic suitability should be studied further to identify the best cultivation zones. The MaxEnt model
is a useful tool to study climatic suitability for maize cultivation. |
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Keywords: | maize planting distribution dominant cfimatic factor climatic suitability maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model |
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