基于STIRPAT模型北京市交通碳排放影响因素研究

随着经济的不断发展,交通碳排放已经成为了城市碳排放的主要来源之一,引起了极大关注。现有研究主要集中在国家层面,而对于市级层面的交通研究较少。为了深入探究影响市级单位交通碳排放的因素,缓解交通业所带来的环境和能源压力,研究引入新变量能源价格,通过构建STIRPAT模型,采用PLS分析方法分析了1997—2014年北京市交通碳排放的影响因素。结果显示,经济发展与人口规模的扩张是影响北京市交通碳排放的主要驱动因素,能源价格的提高对交通碳排放有明显的抑制作用,民用汽车拥有量、客运周转量和货运周转量的上升使得交通碳排放显著增加,而能源强度的提高对降低碳排放的影响较小。基于以上分析结果,对降低北京市交通碳排放提出合理化政策建议。

Study on Influencing Factors of Traffic Carbon Emissionsin Beijing Based on STIRPAT Model

With the continuous development of economy,traffic carbon emissions have become one of the main sources of urban carbon emissions,which have aroused great concern.The current research mainly focused on the national level,while the traffic research at the municipal level was less.In order to explore the influencing factors of municipal traffic carbon emissions,to alleviate the environmental and energy pressure brought by the transportation industry,introduction of new variable energy prices,by constructing STIRPAT model and using PLS regression analysis,the influencing factors of traffic carbon emissions in Beijing from 1997 to 2014 were analyzed.The results showed that economic development and population scale expansion were the main driving factors affecting Beijing's traffic carbon emissions;the increase of energy price had obvious inhibition on traffic carbon emission;the increase of passenger car ownership,passenger turnover and freight turnover had a significant positive effect on traffic carbon emissions;while the increase of energy intensity had little effect on reducing carbon emissions.Based on the above analysis results,the rationalization policy recommendations for reducing carbon emissions in Beijing were proposed.