福建生态经济系统的能值分析及可持续发展评估

运用能值理论与方法,对福建省1981-2004年的净能值产出率、能值投入率、人均能值用量、能值货币比率、能值使用强度、电力能值使用量比例、环境负荷率、可持续发展能值指数和人口承载量等9个指标24年来的变化趋势进行了分析,并对各项能值指标2010年的数值进行了预测.结果表明:(1)24年来福建的能值投入率、人均能值用量、能值使用强度、电力能值使用比例不断上升,能值货币比率则持续下降,表明福建省经济得到了巨大的发展;(2)24年来福建省净能值产出率、可持续发展能值指数不断下降,环境负荷率不断升高,说明福建经济的发展是以资源大量消耗和环境破坏为代价而取得的;(3)按各项能值指标的变化趋势曲线对2010年福建省各项能值指标预测表明,若按以往发展模式,福建省产品竞争力将下降,资源环境压力过大,生态经济系统的功能将退化或散失.

Emergy Analysis and Assessment of Sustainability on the Eco-economic System of Fujian Province

Based on the emergy theory and its analysis methods,the change trends of the 9 emergy indices in Fujian from 1981 to 2004 are analyzed,of which are emergy yield ratio(EYR),emergy investment ratio (EIR),emergy used per person(EUPP),emergy dollar ratio(EDR),emergy density(ED),fraction of emergy used from electricity(FEE),environment loading ratio(ELR),emergyobased sustainability index(ESI)and population carrying capacity(PCC);and the numerical values of the nine indices are also predicted in the year 2010.The result showed that:(1)The EIR,EUPP,ED and FEE raised continuously,while the EDR kept on decreasing during the past 24 years,which indicated the economic system of Fujian province have been highly developed.(2)The EYR and the ESI decreased continuously,while the ELR went on rising during the past 24 years,which indicated that the quick development of the economic system in Fujian were at the price of substantial resources consumption and environmental damage.(3)The emergy indices predicted in 2010 of Fujian according to the emergy indices curve showed:if Fujian keeps on developing as before,the competi- tiveness of products will decline and the pressures to the environment will be too large,which will result in the irreversible degradation or lost of function in the eeo-economic system.