| 中国旅游业与经济增长关系的实证研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 柳思维,吴忠才.中国旅游业与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].系统工程,2007,25(9):60-64. |
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| 作者姓名： | 柳思维 吴忠才 |
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| 作者单位： | 中南大学,商学院,湖南,长沙,410083 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过实证研究，发现我国国内旅游、经济增长、入境旅游之间存在长期稳定的协整关系，并构建了一个协整模型来测度它们之间的量化关系。在长期，经济增长对国内旅游的弹性为0．21，入境旅游对国内旅游的弹性为1．02。Granger因果检验发现存在经济增长到国内旅游，入境旅游到国内旅游的单向因果关系。最后通过预测方差分解，分析了三个变量每一结构冲击对内生变量变化的贡献度。
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| 关 键 词： | 旅游业 经济增长 协整 向量误差修正模型 Granger因果关系 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-4098（2007）09-0060-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-01-19 |
An Empirical Study on Tourism and Economic Growth of China |
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| LIU Si-wei,WU Zhong-cai.An Empirical Study on Tourism and Economic Growth of China[J].Systems Engineering,2007,25(9):60-64. |
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| Authors: | LIU Si-wei WU Zhong-cai |
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| Institution: | School of Business,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China |
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| Abstract: | According to empirical study, this paper indicates that there is a long-term stability cointegration relation among domestic tourism, economic growth and inbound tourism. Through the cointegration model, elasticities of economy growth and inbound tourism to the domestic tourism are 0. 21 and 1.02. There are Granger causalities from LGDP to LDR, and LIR to LDR. Variance decomposition analyses the contribution of each structure attacking to endogenous variables finally. |
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| Keywords: | Tourism Industry Economic Growth Cointegration VECM Granger Causality |
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