基于进化算法和水质模型的河口污染物溯源方法

近年来河口地区水体污染突发事件日益增多，快速识别污染源发生的位置、时间和总量，对于防控措施的制定具有重要的研究价值。为此本文基于河口地区潮流动力特征，通过变量解耦、优化遗传算法和水质扩散模型，提出了一套适用于河口地区的溯源方法。通过引入基于拉格朗日方法的大尺度粗筛，明确溯源范围，再基于考虑权重系数的遗传算法和适应度指标法，进一步优化污染源位置和发生时间，最后基于解耦模型实现泄露总量的判定，确保了计算效率和和预测精度。模型进一步应用于福建省泉州湾河口地区的污染源识别，研究结果表明，模型在单观测点信息源的情况下，仍具有良好的鲁棒性和溯源准确性，若观测点增加，通过交叉验证可消除观测误差的影响，给出更为准确的溯源结果，证实该方法不受限于实测数据源的多少，具有较好的推广和应用性。该方法可以辅助河口及海岸地区水污染的快速溯源和调查取证，协助相关部门采取必要措施减轻水污染造成的的不利影响。

Study on Traceability of Pollutants in Estuary Areas

In recent years, the number of water pollution emergencies in the estuary area is increasing. Rapid identification of the location, time and total amount of pollution sources is of great research value for the formulation of prevention and control measures. In this paper, based on the dynamic characteristics of tidal current in estuary area, a set of tracing methods suitable for estuary area is proposed through variable decoupling, optimization of genetic algorithm and water quality diffusion model. By introducing a large-scale coarse screening based on Lagrange method, the calculation range is defined, and then the location and occurrence time of pollution sources are further optimized based on fitness method and the genetic algorithm that considering weight coefficients. Then finally the total leakage amount is calculated based on decoupling model. This model ensures the calculation efficiency and prediction accuracy. This model was further applied to the identification of pollution sources in Quanzhou Bay estuary, Fujian province. The results show that this model still has good robustness and traceability accuracy under the condition of single observation point source. If observation point increase, the influence of observation errors can be eliminated by cross-validation, and more accurate traceability results can be obtained. It is proved that the method is not limited to the number of measured data sources, so it has good popularization and application. This proposed method can assist the rapid tracing and investigation of water pollution in estuary and coastal areas, then assist relevant departments to take necessary measures to weaken the adverse effects caused by water pollution.