铁路城际客流预测模型的研究

在客运市场,准确把握城际客流的影响因素,及其对铁路城际客流的影响程度,对铁路运输企业是非常关键的.文章从铁路运输企业的角度,分析影响城际客流的因素,利用灰色理论中系统关联度分析方法,建立一种新的铁路城际客流GM(1,5)预测模型.并以广州至深圳城际客流为背景,预测其铁路城际客流,为铁路运输企业客运产品设计提供科学依据.

Research on the Model of Forecasting Passenger Flow of the Intercity Train

The railway transportation enterprises must compete seriously with their rivals from road. It is very important for the enterprises to accurately predict the passenger flow of the intercity train. So, the research on the model of forecasting the passenger flow is essential. On the point of the railway transport enterprise, the paper establishes a kind of new prediction model about the passenger flow of the intercity train. It analyses the influence factors on the passenger flow of the intercity train and utilizes the system association analysis of Gray Theory to set up the forecasting model. On the background of the Guangzhou to Shenzhen line, it predicts the passenger flow of the intercity train. The study can provide the scientific basis for the railway passenger transport enterprise to design its production.