基金经理过度自信条件下基金收益与风险的动态变化关系

从行为金融学角度，建立基金经理过度自信时的交易模型，分析基金收益和风险的动态变化。研究结果表明，基金的收益和风险与基金经理过度自信程度以及交易成功的次数均成正比例变动。另外。随着交易持续进行，若过度自信的基金经理为高能力投资者，则基金的收益和风险将收敛至高能力基金经理进行理性交易时的水平；若过度自信的基金经理为低能力投资者，当其过度自信程度在一定范围内时，基金的收益和风险将收敛至低能力基金经理进行理性交易时的水平。这说明在一定条件下，逐渐丰富的工作经验会使基金经理变得理性，而过度自信对基金收益和风险的影响也并非长期存在。

Dynamic Variety of the Returns and Risk of Investment Fund under the Condition of Overconfidence

From behavioral finance point, the trading model of investment fund manager under the condition of overconfidence is advanced, and the variety of the returns and risk of investment fund is discussed. The result shows that the returns and risk of investment fund are both proportional to the overconfidence degree and the successful trading times of investment fund manager. Moreover, under the condition that the trade are played to infinity, if the trading ability of the investment fund manager is high, the returns and risk of investment fund will converge to the level when the investment fund manager trades rationally ~ If the trading ability of the investment fund manager is low and the overconfidence degree of him is not too large, the returns and risk of investment fund will converge to the level when the investment fund manager trades rationally too. It indicates that the investment fund manager will become rational if he has enough working experience, and the effect of overconfidence on the returns and risk of investment fund does not always exist.