带选择压的兰切斯特战争模型

在兰切斯特战争数模的基础上,引入了战争选择压的概念,使兰切斯特模型可以适用于现代战争条件,提出了正规战、游击战和混合战的一般模型,使用这些模型,可以计算和预测战争。结果表明,如果美军想彻底摧毁塔利班,需要7个半月的时间;而美军委想取得新海湾战争的胜利,要付出伤亡约6．9万人的代价。

The Lanchester Mathematical Model with Battle Selection Pressure

On the basis of Lanchester battle mathematical model, this paper introduces the conception of battle selection pressure that can make Lanchester model accord with the modern combat conditions, advances the general models of regular warfare, guerrilla warfare and hybrid warfare, using which we calculate and detect the Gulf War and America-Taliban War, and shows that if American army wants to mop the floor with Taliban, they need at least seven and half months.