基于企业退休职工养老金领取的预算

针对企业退休职工养老金领取的问题，预测养老金规划方案，对实现领取与缴存养老保险基金间平衡方案提出意见．首先，针对未来社会经济发展和工资增长的形势，根据广东省的职工工资，建立阻滞增长模型（Logisitic模型），预测将来的广东省的年平均工资，计算养老金领取额；其次，针对发放的养老金总额与退休前缴的养老保险总额，根据养老保险基金出现缺口情况进行分析，建立预算规划模型，制定企业退休职工养老金领取的规划方案；最后，通过预算规划方案，在替代率初步分析、检验的基础上，确保养老保险基金的收支平衡，为社会经济的稳定发展提供参考．

On the budget of enterprise retirees pension

The paper aims to strike a balance between the deposits and withdraws of the insurance funds by predicting the pension scheme to fix the enterprises retirees pensions problem. First of all, it builds a logistic model to predict the future annual salary based on the Guangdong current salary and the future economic and social development and the salary change; second, it builds up a budget planning model to analyze the gap between the total volume of the issued pensions and the total volume of the deposits of pensions before the retirement; third, the built-up models are put to test and analyze the pension replacement rate to ensure a balance between the deposits and withdraws of the pensions hence to give a reference to the steady socioeconomic development.