济南耕地变化分析及驱动因子研究

根据济南市各县的统计数据,分析了济南20世纪50年代以来耕地面积的总体变化趋势,并进一步分析了1995—2003年间耕地的变化速度、区域差异和驱动因子、变化速度、区域差异和驱动因子.分析表明:济南的耕地面积呈现波动减少的态势,但人均耕地面积经历了几乎逐年沿直线下降的变化过程;耕地空间变化区域差异较明显;用主成分分析法将影响济南耕地变化的9个因子可归纳为社会压力驱动、经济发展驱动、城市建设驱动3个方面.

Studies on the change of cultivated land and its driving factors in Jinan

According to the statistic and survey data at country levels in Jinan City,the trend of cultivated land change during the last 50 years as well as the regional differences and its driving forces from 1995 to 2003 were discussed in this paper.The results show that the area of the cultivated land is reduced in a fluctuating way and the cultivated land per capita has decreased nearly in a straight line year after year while the regional difference in the spatial change of cultivated land is obvious.Based on the principal component analysis,the nine driving factors affecting the change of cultivated land can be classified into three aspects: the social pressure,economic development and the city development.