空间可修系统的维修性分析、评价与验证技术

随着当前在轨服务技术的快速发展,航天器在轨维修成为了可能。因此,本文系统地定义了空间可修系统(space maintainable system, SMS)的概念,通过梳理维修性分析、评价与验证方法的发展现状,结合SMS系统复杂、在轨维修数据量少等特点,探索性地提出了针对SMS的维修性分析、评价与验证技术。首先利用大量的航天器故障数据,采用基于维修障碍分析法的维修性分析手段。其次,构建了定性评价和基于神经网络的定量评价方案对维修性设计进行评判。最后,考虑SMS真实环境验证样本低等约束,提出了基于贝叶斯理论的小子样维修性验证方法,可以有效地降低试验样本量。

Maintainability analysis,evaluation and verification technology for space maintainable systems

With the development of the on-orbit service technology, it is possible for the on-orbit spacecraft to be maintained. This paper defines the concept of space maintainable system (SMS). The maintainability analysis, evaluation and verification technology for SMS are proposed by combining the development status of maintainability analysis, evaluation and verification methods with the complex characteristics of SMS and the small amount of on-orbit maintenance data. The maintainability analysis method based on maintenance trouble analysis is adopted by using a large number of spacecraft fault data. The qualitative evaluation and the quantitative evaluation scheme based on neural network are constructed respectively to further evaluate the maintainability design. Finally, considering the constraints of small sample size in the real environment, a small-sample maintainability verification method based on Bayes theory is proposed to reduce the amount of samples effectively.