广州旅游产业与城市基础设施协调发展研究

借助系统科学理论，分析了旅游产业系统与城市基础设施系统发展之间的耦合协调关系，构建了两系统的耦舍评价模型和指标体系；对广州市2001--2010年旅游产业系统与城市基础设施系统之间耦合协调发展关系做了实证分析；并利用RIS分析模型预测了广州旅游产业系统、城市基础设施系统综合发展水平以及两者之间耦合协调关系的未来发展趋势．结果发现：①广州市旅游产业与城市基础设施的总体发展水平处于上升阶段；②耦合协调关系实现了从2001--2005年失调阶段到2006----2010年协调阶段的转变；③广州市旅游产业和城市基础设施的综合发展水平以及两者之间的耦合协调度在未来将持续上升．

The Coordinative Development Between Tourism Industry and Urban Infrastructure in Guangzhou

With the help of system science theories, the authors analyzed the coupling coordinative development relationship between tourism industry system and urban infrastructure system, constructed the coupling evaluation model and index system of the two systems, and maked an empirical analysis of coupling coordinative development relationship between the two systems of Guangzhou from 2001 to 2010. And R/S analytical model was applied to predict the development tendency of the comprehensive development level and the coupling coordinative development relationship between the two systems. The results show that： （~）The comprehensive development level of tourism industry and urban infrastructure is on the rising. （~）Coupling coordinative development relationship achieves the transition from the imbalance stage from 2001 to 2005 to coordinative stage from 2006 to 2010. （~）The comprehensive development level and the coupling coordinative development relationship between tourism industry system and urban infrastructure system will continue to rise in the future.