| 铁路自然灾害宏观预警实现的方法和途径 |
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| 引用本文： | 张于心,邢俊义,高巍,张大伟.铁路自然灾害宏观预警实现的方法和途径[J].北京交通大学学报(自然科学版),1999,23(3). |
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| 作者姓名： | 张于心 邢俊义 高巍 张大伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 北方交通大学交通运输学院，铁道部 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于铁路自然灾害发生的特点，在进行客观概率的估测和采用适应应答变化的指数平滑法来预测铁路受灾损失的基础上，给出风险度的确定方法，进而以划分出安全区、警戒区和危险区来实现铁路自然灾害的宏观预警
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| 关 键 词： | 铁路 自然灾害 风险度 宏观预警 |
Approach of the Macro Precaution on Railway Natural Disaster |
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| Zhang Yuxin,Xing Junyi,Gao Wei,Zhang Dawei.Approach of the Macro Precaution on Railway Natural Disaster[J].JOURNAL OF BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIVERSITY,1999,23(3). |
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| Authors: | Zhang Yuxin Xing Junyi Gao Wei Zhang Dawei |
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| Abstract: | Based on the characteristics of railway natural disasters, in the course of objective probability estimate and taking the suitable exponential smoothing method in forecast railway disasters loss, the approach of risk degree is made up. And further, the safety section, precautionary section and danger section are designated. On this account, the macro precaution of railway natural disaster is realized. |
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| Keywords: | railway\ natural disaster\ risk degree\ macro precaution |
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