| 基于季节时间序列模型对海南旅游人数的预测分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张雪艳,陈传钟,胡晓华. 基于季节时间序列模型对海南旅游人数的预测分析[J]. 海南师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2013, 26(1): 13-18 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张雪艳 陈传钟 胡晓华 |
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| 作者单位： | 海南师范大学数学与统计学院,海南海口,571158 |
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| 基金项目： | 海南省自然科学基金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用季节调整模型与SARIMA模型，通过利用最小二乘法的理论和海南省2002年9月-2011年8月各月的旅游人数，对两种模型进行参数估计．比较2011年9月—2012年8月的均方误差，发现SARIMA模型的短期预测较优．最后，对海南未来一年旅游人数做出预测．
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| 关 键 词： | SARIMA模型 季节调整模型 最小二乘法 分析预测 均方误差 |
Forecast Analysis of the Tourist Number in Hainan by Times Series Process Methods |
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| ZHANG Xueyan , CHEN Chuanzhong , HU Xiaohua. Forecast Analysis of the Tourist Number in Hainan by Times Series Process Methods[J]. Journal of Hainan Normal University:Natural Science, 2013, 26(1): 13-18 |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Xueyan CHEN Chuanzhong HU Xiaohua |
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| Affiliation: | (College of Mathematics and Statistics ,Hainan Normal University ,Haikou 571158 , China ) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the season adjusted model and SARIMA model, by using the Least Square Estimation and the num- ber of tourist in Hainan from September 2002 to October 2012, the parameter of two models were estimated and the mean square error from September 2011 to October 2012 were compared. The result showed that： the better model is SARIMA. Lastly, the number of tourist in Hainan in the next year was forecasted. |
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| Keywords: | SARIMA model the season adjusted model least square estimation analysis predictive the mean squareerror |
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