| 基于Markov和GM（1，1）模型的土地利用结构预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 居玲华,石培基.基于Markov和GM（1，1）模型的土地利用结构预测[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2009,25(2):138-141. |
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| 作者姓名： | 居玲华 石培基 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北师范大学,地理与环境科学学院,甘肃,兰州,730070 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据张掖市2003-2006年土地利用变更数据，分别采用Markov与灰色GM（1，1）模型，对全市2011年和2015年土地利用结构变化进行预测，并将所得结果相互验证、对比分析，以提高预测可信度。结果表明：到2015年张掖市耕地、牧草地和未利用地将持续减少，林地和建设用地呈增长趋势；土地利用类型由耕地、园地、牧草地和未利用地向林地、建设用地转化。表6，参8。
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| 关 键 词： | Markov GM(1 1) 土地利用结构 预测 张掖市 |
Prediction of Land Use Structure Based on Markov and Gray Models |
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| JU Ling-hua,SHI Pei-ji.Prediction of Land Use Structure Based on Markov and Gray Models[J].System Sciemces and Comprehensive Studies In Agriculture,2009,25(2):138-141. |
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| Authors: | JU Ling-hua SHI Pei-ji |
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| Institution: | ( College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China) |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of Markov and Gray models,this paper predicted the land use structure changes of Zhangye city. Verification and comparison between two kinds of model predicted results with the same set land use data can improve the prediction Credibility. The result showed that the area of cultivated land, unused land and grassland will decrease.And the area of forest land and construction land will increase from 2007 to 2015.In addition,the area of cultivated land,garden land and grassland will change into construction land,forest land from 2007 to 2015. |
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| Keywords: | Markov GM(1 1) |
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