竞争失效下多元退化建模的导弹贮存寿命评估

导弹失效是弹上多部件退化失效与突发失效相互竞争的结果。根据导弹失效模式分析,建立导弹竞争失效模型。针对贮存期内测试到的弹上多个关键部件特征电压数据,引入状态空间模型,将弹上多个关键部件的特征电压转化为整弹退化程度,采用Wiener、Gamma和Inverse-Gaussian等随机过程模型来拟合整弹退化程度数据,采用赤池信息准则来确定最优的随机过程模型。假定导弹突发失效时间服从Weibull分布,采用比例危险模型,建立了考虑性能退化影响的突发失效率函数。采用两步极大似然估计法求解出模型中未知参数。结合某批次导弹贮存案例分析,验证了本文所建模型的正确性和优势。

Missile storage lifetime assessment of multivariate degradation modeling under competition failure

Missile failure is the competition result of multi-components degradation failure and outburst failure. According to failure mode analysis, a missile competition failure model is presented. Aiming at the voltage testing data of missile key multi-components in storage time, the state space model is applied to integrate the multi-components voltage into whole missile degradation degree. The stochastic process models of Wiener, Gamma and inverse-Gaussian are used to fit the whole missile degradation degree data. Akaike information criterion is applied to determine the optimal stochastic process model. Missile outburst failure time is assumed to be Weibull distribution. The proportional risk model is used to build an outburst failure model with the degradation impact. Two-step maximum likelihood estimation is used to obtain the unknown parameter estimates. A numerical example with a set of missiles in storage is analyzed to verify the accuracy and the superiority of the presented model.