基于无偏估计的装甲装备器材需求灰色预测

针对装甲装备器材需求数据采集过程中存在的数据采集偏差,建立了存在数据采集误差的装备器材需求灰色预测模型;分析了装备器材需求灰色预测模型中,最小二乘估计为无偏估计的条件是数据采集误差的期望为0,否则,最小二乘估计为有偏估计;最后针对数据采集偏差期望不为0的条件,给出一种基于辅助变量的无偏参数估计方法.通过实际案例仿真分析验证了方法的合理性和可行性.

Grey prediction of armored equipment demand based on unbiased estimation

In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the grey forecasting model for equipment demand, this paper presents an unbiased estimation method for the parameters of the grey forecasting model. Aiming at the data acquisition deviation in the process of data acquisition of armored equipment demand, this paper first establishes a grey prediction model of equipment demand with data acquisition errors. Secondly, in the grey forecasting model of equipment demand, the condition that the least-squares estimate is unbiased is that the expectation of the data acquisition error is 0; otherwise, the least-squares estimate is biased. Finally, an unbiased parameter estimation method based on auxiliary variables is proposed under the condition that the deviation expectation of data acquisition is not zero. The rationality and feasibility of this method are verified by the simulation analysis of a real case.