中国居民果蔬消费与营养发展的趋势预测及战略思考

基于28种果蔬消费量的基础数据(2003-2013年),借助R统计分析软件,采用等维灰数递补模型预测2016-2020年的果蔬消费量,分析不同果蔬的消费发展趋势.其次结合果蔬的消费量预测值估计我国居民未来5年膳食纤维、维生素和矿物质的摄入量,测算结果与《中国居民膳食营养素参考摄入量(DRIs)》中的平均需要量(EAR)作比较,结果显示,所有营养素的摄入量都在逐年增加;维生素A,抗坏血酸,铁和镁等微量元素的摄入量已经比较充足;维生素E和磷的摄入量逐渐达到合理范围;核黄素、锌、钙的摄入量占DRI的70%~80%;纤维和硫胺素的摄入量占DRI的60%~70%;硒的摄入量不足1/2DRI.表明我国居民的膳食营养结构存在一定程度失衡,在满足居民身体健康所需均衡营养的意义下,提出果蔬产业和居民营养均衡协同发展的调整战略.

On Strategies and Trend Prediction for Nutrition Development and Consumption of Fruits and Vegetables of Residents in China

Based on some basic data of the consumption of 28 different fruits and vegetables from 2003 to 2013, the consumption of those fruits and vegetables from 2016 to 2020 has firstly been predicted and the development trend of them with R software analyzed, by the model of recursive compensation by gray number of identical dimension.Secondly, intakes of dietary fiber and vitamin as well as minerals of Chinese inhabitants in the next five years have been estimated in combination with the predicted valve of the consumption of fruits and vegetables and compared them with the estimated average requirements(EAR) at the Chinese DIRs.Results show that all nutrient intakes keep increasing year by year;the intakes of Vitamin A, ascorbic acid, iron and magnesium were sufficient;riboflavin and calcium intakes were between 70%-80% DRI;dietary fiber and thiamine intakes were between 60%-70% DRI and selenium intake was less than half of DRI.This reflects that the structure of the daily dietary nutrition is imbalanced and should be highly regarded, and at the same time, proposed the strategies for the development of fruits and vegetables industry and balanced nutrition.