基于“四阶段法”的改扩建高速公路近期交通量预测

摘 要： 鉴于高速公路改扩建已成为时下我国高速公路发展建设中的常见现象及今后的一大发展方向，本文讨论了交通量预测的基本思路，以现状道路交通OD为基础，根据交通出行的趋势和特点，采用四阶段法（社会经济预测、交通生成预测、交通分布预测和交通分配）对改扩建高速公路交通量进行预测，为今后高速公路扩宽改造交通量预测工作如何开展提供思路。

Short-term traffic volume forecast in the reconstruction and extension project based on four-stage method

Abstract: With the common phenomenon and major development of the reconstruction and extension project, this paper analyzes the basic idea for traffic volume forecast, and carries on the traffic volume forecast in the reconstruction and extension project with four-stage method (the social-economy forecasting, the trip generation prognosis, the trip distribution prognosis and the traffic assignment) on the basis of the present road traffic OD and the trip characters and tendency, which provides a method for the traffic volume forecast in the reconstruction and extension project in the future.