管理浮动汇率制度下人民币汇率决定模型研究

根据现阶段我国的实际经济背景和管理浮动汇率制度的特点，应用经济理论和系统分析方法，通过对人民币汇率决定机制的分析，建立人民币汇率决定模型，根据所建立的模型，得出如下结论；人民币对美元汇率的变化率是由西方主要货币对美元汇率的变化率，商品的相对价格的变化率，国内外利率差，外债余额对收入比率的变化率及国内货币供应量的变化率共同决定的。

STUDY ON THE MODELING OF RMB EXCHANGE RATES DETERMINATION UNDER THE MANAGED FLOATING RATE SYSTEM

In this paper,the mechanism of RMB exchange rate determination is studied by using economics theory and the method of system analysis under the background of China's economics and the characteristics of managed floating rate system.The models of RMB exchange rate determination are constructed skillfully.According to these models,it is concluded that the change in RMB against US dollar exchange rate depend on the change in the main foreign currency vs.US dollar exchange rates,the relative prices of traded goods,the foreign debt to total income ratios,domestic money supply and on the differential in real interest rates.Empirical results reported in this study suggest that the models can explain the variations of RMB against US dollar exchange rate at present.