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| 灰色系统理论在T-501市场需求预测中的应用 | |
| 引用本文： | 宋国防,汪建辉,陈青松. 灰色系统理论在T-501市场需求预测中的应用[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2000, 20(11): 139-144. DOI: 10.12011/1000-6788(2000)11-139 |
| 作者姓名： | 宋国防 汪建辉 陈青松 |
| 作者单位： | (1)上海大学机电工程与自动化学院;(2)天津大学管理学院;(3)锦州石化天元集团公司 |
| 摘 要： | 对 T-50 1市场需求的预测 ,以前一直是在市场分析的基础上 ,采用经理评判法、专家预测法、市场调查法等定性方法进行预测 .本文尝试采用灰色系统的理论 ,建立 GM( 1 ,1 )预测模型 ,并用残差检验、关联度检验、后验差检验等方法验证了模型的正确性 ,对 T-50 1今后几年市场需求量作出了合理预测. |
| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统理论 GM(1:1)模型 市场需求预测 检验 |
| 修稿时间： | 1998-11-12 |
The Applying of Grey System Theory in the Market Demand Prediction of T-501 |
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| SONG Guo-fang,WANG Jian-hui,CHEN Qing-song. The Applying of Grey System Theory in the Market Demand Prediction of T-501[J]. Systems Engineering —Theory & Practice, 2000, 20(11): 139-144. DOI: 10.12011/1000-6788(2000)11-139 | |
| Authors: | SONG Guo-fang WANG Jian-hui CHEN Qing-song |
| Affiliation: | (1)Shanghai University;(2)Tianjin University;(3)Jinzhou Petrochemic Tianyuan Group Company |
| Abstract: | The market demand prediction of T-501 was, on the basis of market analysis, some quantitative methods such as manager evaluating, expert predicting, market surveying and so on. Applying grey system theory, the paper has presented the GM(1,1) predicting model and applied residue checking, correlativity checking and after-test residue checking to test the correctivity of the GM(1,1) model. The paper has also predicted the market demand of T-501 in next few years correctly. |
| Keywords: | grey system theory GM(1:1) model market demand prediction checking |
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