Quantitative properties of the evolution and classification of languages

Statistical analyses of a published phylogenetic classification of languages show some properties attributable to taxonomic methods and others that reflect the nature of linguistic evolution. The inferred phylogenetic tree is less well resolved and more asymmetric at the highest taxonomic ranks, where the tree is constructed mainly by phenetic methods. At lower ranks, where cladistic methods are more prevalent, the asymmetry of well resolved parts of the tree is consistent with a stochastic birth and death process in which languages originate and become extinct at constant rates, although poorly resolved parts of the tree are still more asymmetric than predicted. Other tests applied to a sample of historically recorded languages reveal substantial fluctuations in the rates of origination and extinction, with both rates temporarily reduced when languages enter the historical record. For languages in general, the average origination rate is estimated to be only slightly higher than the average extinction rate, which in turn corresponds to an average lifetime of about 500 years or less.This research was suported by a grant from the UCLA Academic Senate and by computer time from the UCLA Office of the Academic Computing. I thank Merritt Ruhlen, Joseph B. Slowinski, and Thomas D. Wickens for helpful information and suggestions.