产业结构调整的能源消费约束研究

基于协整理论,对我国三次产业产出与其能源消费的相关数据进行了分析和实证检验.研究表明：能源消费对我国产业结构调整存在长期与短期约束;我国产业结构的优化升级并未带来人们预期的产业能源消费弹性下降,其主要原因是第三产业的能源消费弹性大,第三产业、第二产业内部结构不合理所至.在未来的产业结构调整中应通过科学制定和实施国家产业政策、坚持走新型工业化道路等来实现我国产业结构的高度化以及与能源消费的协调一致.

The Structure Adjustment and Energy Consumption in Industry

Based on the cointegration theory,this data related to three industries' output value and their energy consumption are analyzed.The result proves that there are long-term and short-term constraints of the energy consumption to the industry structure adjustment.The industrial structure optimization has not resulted in the elastic drop of the energy consumption as expected.The major causes are the rich elasticity of the third industry and the unreasonable interior structure of the second and the third industr...