基于概率图的作战任务智能规划方法

针对人工调配作战资源及规划方案效率低下的问题，本文提出一种基于概率图的作战任务智能规划方法，通过统计分析判定任务间因果关系，采用GNN抽取任务中的关键事件构建概率图并计算任务规划方案成功的概率，进而基于时间序列方法预测战场态势变化，实现辅助指挥员智能决策。最后，本文在某联合登岛案例中开展了方法验证，结果表明，所提出的方法可成功实现任务规划并具有可解释性，可实现对战场态势变化的预测和快速响应，在战场上为军队提供强有力的支持。

Intelligent planning method of combat mission based on probability graph

In view of the low efficiency of manual allocation of combat resources and planning scheme, an intelligent planning method of combat tasks is proposed based on probability graph. The causality between tasks is determined by statistical analysis, and the key events in the task are extracted by using graph neural network (GNN) to construct probability diagram and calculate the success probability of mission planning scheme. Then, the change of battlefield situation can be predicted and the commander can be assisted to achieve intelligent decision based on the time series method. Finally, the method verification is carried out in a joint landing case. The results show that the proposed method can realize the mission planning successfully with interpretability, the prediction and rapid response of the battlefield situation changes, and provide strong support for the army in the battlefield.