危机信息传播有效性的离散化不确定性评估模型

以科学评估危机信息传播有效性为目标，结合国内外前沿文献对危机信息传播的影响因素和传播过程的不确定性进行了分析论述。分析认为，危机信息传播有效性是一个不确定性概念，是模糊性与随机性的统一；其评估问题也需要从模糊性与随机性两个方面结合进行考虑。应用模糊随机理论，构建了危机信息传播有效性的离散化评估模型，并给出了隶属函数的确定方法。这是对危机信息传播有效性评估理论与方法的拓展，为危机信息传播有效性的定量研究提供了思路。

Discrete Evaluation Model on Uncertainty of Crisis Information Communication Validity

Aiming at the scientific evaluation of the validity of crisis information communication, literatures on the factors of the crisis information communication and uncertainty in the communication process are reviewed and analyzed. The validity of crisis information cmnmunication is found to be a concept of uncertainty which unifies the fuzziness and randomieity. The evaluation should be considered by both of the fuzziness and randomieity. So the fuzzy random theory is applied to a discrete evaluation model on the crisis information communication validity. An approach on its membership function is given. The evaluation theory and method are extended. And a novel perspective on quantitative research is provided.