信息技术、供给冲击与新经济

为了解释低通胀与低失业并存的现象与菲利普斯曲线所提出的通货膨胀与失业交替关系的不一致,研究了菲利普斯曲线经典模型萨缪尔森-索洛模型,发现其是建立在“工资成本惟一”这一假设基础上的,而忽视了其他成本,包括生产资料成本．本文对此模型进行了修正,在产品价格中加入了生产资料成本,并提出了一条新的菲利普斯曲线．新菲利普斯曲线解释了低通胀与低失业并存的现象．通过分析信息技术产品价格指数,指出了信息技术投资对低通胀、低失业、高增长的新经济有贡献,即信息技术作为一种生产投入,其价格下降对经济增长产生了有利的供给冲击．

Information Technology,Supply Shock and New Economy

New economy refers to US economy in 1990s, which has new characters, including high growth, low inflation and low unemployment. According to Phillips curve, low inflation and low unemployment can not exist simultaneously. This paper modified the Phillips curve to explain the phenomenon. The new Phillips curve shows that low inflation and low unemployment could happen together. Based on it, this paper analyzed the relationship between information technology and "New Economy". Because of the rapid technology improvement, the price indexes of information technology products declined very quickly in the last decade, and they produced supply shock to US economy in 1990s.