基于前景理论的施工安全管理行为演化博弈

施工人员和安全管理人员的策略选择直接影响到相关人员的生命财产安全,也关系到项目的成败。将前景理论引入演化博弈分析过程,构建了有别于传统收益矩阵的收益感知矩阵,并应用于工程施工安全管理行为研究,得到从根本上消除不重视安全行为所必须达到的4项条件。结合现代行为学研究结论,证明4项条件在现实中难以达到,从而较好地解释了现实中安全损失巨大而有意不安全行为频发的矛盾现象。最后,运用数值仿真技术,给出可以促使系统达到理想状态的6个调节参数,并验证了京沪高速铁路工程施工中安全管理优秀做法特别是心理意识调节方法的合理性和有效性。

Evolutionary Game Analysis of the Behavior of Construction Safety Management Based on Prospect Theory

The strategies managers and workers choose affect the safety of the participants and property,and further influence the success of a project.Prospect Theory is integrated into Evolutionary Game Theory and the Perceived Benefits Matrix,which was different from the payoff matrix,is constructed and used to study the behavior of construction safety management.The study shows that eliminating the risk-taking behavior problems must meet the four required conditions.But according to the Prospect Theory and other theories of cognitive psychology,a conclusion is drawn that it is difficult to meet these four conditions in reality.This explains the paradox that risk-taking behavior exists although it causes huge losses.Finally,using Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway construction project as an example,numerical simulation is used to get the process in which six adjustable parameters,specially the psychological one,make the system achieve the desired state.