| 基于概率模型对2008北京奥运会中国代表团成绩的预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘卫民,吴瑕.基于概率模型对2008北京奥运会中国代表团成绩的预测[J].湖北师范学院学报(自然科学版),2008,28(1):16-19. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘卫民 吴瑕 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖北师范学院,体育学院,湖北,黄石,435002 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家体育总局体育社会科学基金
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湖北省教育厅科研项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用概率模型计算得出,在奥运会比赛中东道国获奖牌数,是它们到客场比赛获奖牌数均值的3.6倍;是它们在奥运会举办年上届和下届奥运会比赛中获奖牌数均值的1.85倍,东道国的金牌率比它们到客场参加奥运会比赛的金牌率多28.1%.并依此,预测2008年北京奥运会中国体育代表团获奖牌数在100枚左右,获金牌数在45枚左右。
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| 关 键 词： | 奥运会比赛 奖牌率 金牌率 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-2714(2008)01-0016-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年1月20日 |
The probability model predicting the performance of China sport team at Beijing Olympics in 2008 |
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| LIU Wei-min,WU Xia.The probability model predicting the performance of China sport team at Beijing Olympics in 2008[J].Journal of Hubei Normal University(Natural Science),2008,28(1):16-19. |
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| Authors: | LIU Wei-min WU Xia |
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| Institution: | (Physical Education Department, Hubei Normal University, Huangshi 435002, China) |
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| Abstract: | The performance won by each country in the Olympic game is empirically studied, using the method math analysis. The result showed that there is a large home advantage. The home country wins 3.5 times their away numbers of medals, and 1.85 times their average in the games immediately before and after their home games. There is also evidence that the home team wins 28.1% their away percentage of gold medals. The probability model predicted home ground advantage would give china team about 100 medals, with 45 gold. |
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| Keywords: | Olympic Game percentage of medals percentage of gold medals |
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