基于MS建模方法的基本面分析师预测行为研究

从证券市场参与者的有限理性出发，分析了基本面分析师在进行价格预测的过程中所面临的复杂制度环境。通过MS（Microscopic Simulation）的建模方法，考虑了证券市场交易制度和各类参与者的决策规则之间的相互作用，建立了仿真的证券市场。仿真的结果表明，当公司具备投青价值且上市公司盈余管理能力较强时，基本面分析师即使能够分析出上市公司的真正业绩，仍会用粉饰过的盈余进行股价的预测．

MS-Based Study of Fundamental Analysts Forcasting Behavior

The factors influencing fundamental analysts were analyzed during forcasting stock price.The bounded rationality of security market participants and constraints imposed by institutions were emphasized.The modling method is MS(Microscopic Simulation),and the simulation results indicate that if stocks worth investing and corporation has strong earning management capability,even if fundamental analysts can figure out real earnings,they will still use manipulated earnings to forecast stock price.