| 季节变动时间序列的两种新预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 蔡正高.季节变动时间序列的两种新预测模型[J].合肥学院学报(自然科学版),2006,16(3):5-8. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蔡正高 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津财经大学,统计系,天津,300222 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金
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安徽省教育厅科研项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 对于季节变动时间序列提出了一种新的乘法分解模型,它可表示成年度变动因子、季节变动因子、总平均值和随机变动因子的乘积.然后在此基础上给出渐进预测模型和乘法预测模型,最后进行了实例分析.
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| 关 键 词： | 季节变动 渐进预测模型 乘法预测模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1673-162X(2006)03-0005-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年3月7日 |
Two Kinds of New Forecasting Models on Seasonal Variable Time Series |
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| CAI Zheng-gao.Two Kinds of New Forecasting Models on Seasonal Variable Time Series[J].Journal of Hefei University :Natural Sciences,2006,16(3):5-8. |
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| Authors: | CAI Zheng-gao |
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| Abstract: | A new multiplicative decomposable model is put forward on seasonal variable time series,which is expressed by the product of four factors that are annual variable factor,seasonal variable factor,general mean value and random variable factor.Then asymptotic forecasting model and multiplicative forecasting model are proposed based on the multiplicative decomposable expression.Finally,an example is illustrated to show its satisfactory result. |
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| Keywords: | seasonal variation asymptotic forecasting model multiplicative forecasting model |
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