海洋渔业资源可持续利用的捕捞策略和动力预测

海洋渔业资源是自然资源的重要组成部分，是发展海洋经济的重要物质基础近年来，由于陆地资源匮乏、空间紧张、环境恶化等问题的出现，人类开发海洋的深度和广度不断拓展，使得海洋资源和环境也受到了严峻的挑战．本文运用非线性理论建立了海洋渔业资源二次非线性捕捞的动力模式，研究了渔业资源生物量（资源量）增长与增长率和捕捞强度的关系．研究结果表明：海洋渔业资源生物量与其增长率成正相关关系，与捕捞强度成负相关关系．在相同的资源生物量下，渔业资源的捕捞强度越大，所要求的资源生物量增长率就要越大．为了保证海洋渔业资源的可持续利用，必须把捕捞强度控制在一定的水平上，采用合理的捕捞策略，我们才可以得到持续的最大产量，才能避免海洋渔业资源的过度利用、枯竭．因此要正确处理好经济发展与渔业资源保护之间的关系．

Fishing Strategy and Study of Dynamic Prediction of Sustainable Utilize in Marine Fishery Resources

Marine fishery resources constitute an important part of natural resources and it was the foundation of marine economy development. In recent years, due to the short in land and space, deterioration of environment, the depth and extent of exploring marine resources continuous grow, so the resources of marine is faced with challenges. A nonlinear dynamic model is built to study the relationship between the biologic amount of marine fishery, resources and the increasing rate and fishing intensity. The result shows that the biologic amount of marine fishery resources increase positively with increasing rate and negatively with fishing intensity. For the same amount of marine fishery resources, the more the prizing intensity, the more the increasing rate requested. To insure the sustainable development and harvest, we must control the fishing intensity at a certain level, and adopt logical strategy of fishing by doing this we can get the maximum sustaining yield, the marine fishery, resources can not be utilized unduly and dry up. So we must predict the relationship of economic development and protection of marine fishery resources mathematically.