新世纪初期中国城市化与经济增长关系的定量分析

城市化与经济发展之间是一种相互促进、互为因果的关系。以往的研究多以经济发展水平为自变量来研究相应的城市化水平,而以城市化水平为自变量反向研究他们的关系则不多,这种研究具有更积极的实际意义,模型也更为简单。从人口城市化和空间城市化两个方面,用统计数据的时间序列和空间序列进行相关分析和回归分析,结果表明:中国单位人口城市化率增量对应的人均产值增量在350～1 600元/人之间,且新世纪以来逐年提高,中国人口城市化的经济效益越来越好;单位空间城市化率增量对应的地均产值增量在2.7～12.5万元/KM2之间,新世纪以来先降后升,存在波动,2003年后城市土地利用的经济效益逐年提高。

Quantitative Analysis on Relationship between Urbanization and Economic Growth of China Since 2000

There is a relationship of mutual promotion and reciprocal causation between urbanization and economy development.The level of economy development was always used as independent variable in former research which studied the relationship between urbanization and economy development.Recently,reversedly studying their relationship using level of urbanization as independent variable can bring more postive significance and result in brief model.To explore the relationship between urbanization and economic growth in China since 2000,this article carries out correlation analysis and regression analysis modeling via time series and spatial series of statistical data according to population urbanization and area urbanization.The results show that: The increments of GDP per capita corresponding one unit increment of population urbanization were between 350-1600 Yuan per person,and increase year by year since the new century,which indicates that the economic benefits of China’s population urbanization is getting better;The increments of GDP per km2 corresponding one unit increment of area urbanization were between 2.7-12.5 ten thousand yuan per km2,and fluctuated since 2000,which indicates that the economic benefits of China’s urban land use in urbanization increase year by year untill after 2003.