江西桃红岭国家级自然保护区梅花鹿种群生存力分析

梅花鹿华南亚种(Cervus nipponkopschi)是我国Ⅰ级重点保护野生动物。目前仅分布于江西、浙江、安徽等狭窄的区域内,形成多个孤立种群。根据梅花鹿种群的相关参数,借助漩涡模型Vortex 9.99,以江西桃红岭国家级自然保护区梅花鹿种群为研究对象,对其梅花鹿种群在1983年后100 a内的动态及敏感性进行了模拟分析。模型结果表明,在自然情况下,该种群在100 a内灭绝概率为0。第1阶段(1983-1998年)种群数量从60只快速增长至226只,第2阶段(1998-2011年)种群数量从226只增长到341只,第3阶段(2011-2083年)种群数量维持在352只左右,年均增长率分别为9.25%、3.32%、0.04%。虽然高死亡率、灾害延缓了种群增长的速度,近亲繁殖导致近100 a内基因杂合率下降了7.46%,但这些因素并没有显著影响桃红岭梅花鹿种群近100 a内的命运。在不考虑其它条件的情况下,环境容纳量对梅花鹿种群遗传多样性损失具有明显的影响,是限制该梅花鹿种群发展的重要因素。因此,改善生境质量,提高环境容纳量是促进该梅花鹿种群增长的有效途径。有计划的火烧、植被矮化以及开辟生境走廊,可以有效地改善鹿类环境容纳量,是当前梅花鹿保护亟待开展的工作。同时,应进一步提高当地社区居民的保护意识,杜绝偷猎盗猎,降低人类生产经营活动对梅花鹿的影响。

Population Viability Analysis for Sika Deer (Cervus nipponkopschi) in the Taohongling National Nature Reserve in Jiangxi Province,China

The South China subspecies of sika deer （Cervus nipponkopschi） is assigned to the List of Wildlife Protection Class I under Special State Protection, as designated by the Chinese State Coun- cil. In recent years, sika deer have formed several relatively isolated populations and are distributed in parts of Jiangxi ,Zhejiang and Anhui provinces. Based on data of related population parameters,we used Vortex 9.99 to simulate the dynamics of sika deer population inhabiting in Taohongling Nation- al Nature Reserve in recent 100 a （from 1983 to 2083 ）. Results of the stimulation suggested that under natural conditions the probability of extinction would be 0 in recent 100 a ;the population would grow rapidly from 60 to 226,from 1983 to 1998 with an average growth rate of 9.25% ;from 1998 to 2011, the average growth rate would significantly decrease to only 3.32% ;after 2011, the population will stabilize with about 352 individuals with an average growth rate of 0.04%. High mortality rate and disasters would slow down the speed of population growth. Inbreeding would lead to a heterozygo- sis rate reduction to 7.46% ,but these factors would not significantly affect the fate of the sika deer population in recent 100 a. Without considering other factors, environmental carrying capacity has led to significant loss of genetic diversity, which was one of the most important factors limiting the devel- opment of the sika deer population. Improving the habitat quality and increasing environmental carry- ing capacity are effective ways to promote sika deer population growth. We suggested that some meas- ures, such as planned vegetation burning, vegetation cutback and establishing habitat corridors, should be properly used to increase the environmental carrying capacity. At the same time, the man- agers should take measures to raise awareness of the wildlife protection in the local community, elimi- nate poaching, and reduce the negative impacts of human activity in the nature reserve on sika deer.