水资源承载力可拓评价方法

针对水资源承载力水平评价方法中存在的精度深度不足、因素选择受限或物理意义不明确等问题,把解决矛盾问题的可拓评价方法引入到水资源承载力研究领域,主要通过建立多指标参数的评定模型来完整地反映地区的承载力水平.同时,为了解决可拓评价方法在水资源承载力应用中存在的失效和权重选取问题,提出了基于非对称贴近度和粗集权重的可拓评价模型的改进方法.与标准可拓评价方法相比,该方法有效避免了承载力评价中最大隶属原则的失效问题,并克服了以往忽视承载力评价指标重要性差异的不足.洮河水资源承载力研究实例结果表明该方法有效可行.

Study of extension evaluation method for water resources carrying capacity

Extension evaluation method used to solve contradictory problems is suggested to estimate water resources carrying capacity, in order to overcome the deficit of traditional evaluation methods on it. The method completely indicates the carrying level by a multi-index assessment model. The invalidation problem and unreasonable weights appear in the applied process, so a new improvement on extension method based on rough sets and unsymmetrical proximity principle is put forward. It was more logical and reasonable on calculating weights compared to the traditional one, and the unsymmetrical proximity instead of maximum subordination principle could effectively solute the invalidation problem induced by maximum subordination principle in the applied process. The method is developed to evaluate water resources carrying capacity of Tao River, and the results show that the extension evaluation method is feasible and can effectively evaluate water resources carrying level.