昆明市2011—2020年植被覆盖时空变化特征分析及其归因

以2011—2020年MODIS＿NDVI与气象数据为基础，利用趋势分析、变异系数法、Hurst指数、偏相关分析法与地图学的空间分析等方法，分析近10 a昆明市的植被覆盖的时空分布、变化特征以及未来变化趋势。结果表明：(1)近10 a昆明市植被覆盖情况良好，且呈增加趋势，增速为3.6%/10 a;(2)昆明市植被覆盖率高(NDVI>0.6)的区域，占整个昆明市92.45%,整体植被覆盖状况良好，低海拔地段处NDVI更容易出现低值。全市NDVI小于0.6的区域面积主要集中在西南部；(3)昆明市过去十年约71.44%的区域得到改善，远大于退化的区域，可能得益于近年的退耕造林工程；(4)研究区植被变化波动特征内存在显著的空间差异，波动大的区域经济发展迅速，人为影响大，多为城镇用地、交通要道和耕地。波动小的地区主要是林区；(5)从未来趋势上看，植被覆盖良性发展的占19.64%,恶性发展的占22.40%,基本不变的约为57.96%,其中嵩明县、昆明市市辖区、呈贡县、宜良县和石林彝族自治县等地需要引起重视；(6)由于昆明市整体光照充足，降雨量比气温更能影响到植被覆盖情况，且近10 a的植树造...

Analysis of spatiotemporal variation of vegetation coverage in Kunming City from 2011 to 2020 based on MODIS_NDVI and its attribution

Based on the MODIS_NDVI and meteorological data from 2011 to 2020, the temporal and spatial distribution, change characteristics and future change trends of vegetation cover in Kunming in the past ten years were analyzed by using trend analysis, coefficient of variation method, Hurst index, partial correlation analysis method and cartographic spatial analysis. The results showed that: (1) In the past 10 years, the vegetation cover in Kunming City was good and showed an increasing trend, with a growth rate of 3.6%/10a. (2) Areas with high vegetation coverage (NDVI>0.6) in Kunming accounted for 92.45% of the entire Kunming City, and the overall vegetation coverage was good, and NDVI was more likely to have low values at low altitudes. The area of the city''s NDVI less than 0.6 is mainly concentrated in the southwest. (3) About 71.44% of the area of Kunming City has been improved in the past decade, which is much larger than the degraded area, which may benefit from the afforestation project in recent years. (4) There are significant spatial differences in the fluctuation characteristics of vegetation change in the study area, and the regional economic development with large fluctuations is rapid, and the human impact is large, mostly urban land, traffic arteries and cultivated land. Areas with low fluctuations are mainly forested areas. (5) From the perspective of future trends, vegetation coverage accounts for 19.64% of benign development, malignant development accounts for 22.40%, and basically unchanged about 57.96%, of which Songming County, Kunming Municipal District, Chenggong County, Yiliang County and Shilin Yi Autonomous County need attention. (6) Due to the overall abundant sunshine in Kunming, rainfall can affect vegetation cover more than temperature, and afforestation projects in the past decade have made great contributions to improving vegetation.