基于耦合映像格子模型的城市轨道交通网络可靠性研究

为进一步提高轨道交通网络化背景下的系统可靠性，预防系统潜在客流风险，从复杂网络视角，分析了轨道交通网络可靠性及其加权客流网络可靠性。为衡量客流权重对网络可靠性的影响，构建了客流加权可靠性评价指标。利用上海公共交通卡数据，得到网络节点真实客流权重，以实际客流权重为参数，衡量客流加权网络可靠性。基于耦合映像格子（CML）模型，构建上海轨道交通网络动力学模型，模拟不同情境下网络节点引发的网络级联失效动力学过程，并衡量级联失效过程中的网络客流加权可靠性变化情况。结果表明：地铁网络客流加权性质在毁损初始阶段，下降较小；网络毁损规模超过50%，客流加权网络可靠性趋近于0。因此，在网络毁损初始阶段采取措施能有效防止故障在网络扩散。

Reliability analysis of urban rail transit system network based on coupled map lattice model

To improve the reliability of an urban rail transit system under the background of networking and prevent the potential passenger flow risk of the system, from the perspective of complex network, the reliability of urban transit network and passenger flows weighted network were analyzed . For the purpose of measuring the impact of passenger flow on network reliability, the reliability evaluation indexes for the passenger flow weighted network were constructed. By utilizing the data of Shanghai public transport cards, the actual passenger flow weight of network nodes was obtained, which was then taken as a parameter to measure the network reliability. A dynamic model of Shanghai urban rail transit network was established based on the coupled map lattice (CML) model. The dynamic processes of cascading failures caused by network nodes under different situations were simulated and the changes on the reliability of the passenger flow weighted network during cascading failure processes were measured. The results demonstrate that the reliability of the passenger flow weighted network declines slightly during the initial steps. When the network is damaged more than half the scale, the reliability of weighted passenger flow approaches zero. As a result, it is concluded that actions taken during the initial steps will effectively prevent disturbances from spreading in the network.