基于仿真信息的反舰导弹小子样靶场试验综合评定方法

为了对小子样条件下反舰导弹靶场试验结果作出合理的评定，以仿真信息作为先验信息，分析了小子样条件下反舰导弹靶场试验的Bayes统计推断方法，基于多层验前多元信息融合的理论，建立了反舰导弹靶场试验综合评定中的Bayes统计决策模型.最后在已做的理论与方法研究工作的基础上，开发了试验结果分析评定软件，并结合实际型号的试验数据加以应用，验证了所研究的方法和开发的软件的有效性.

Synthetical evaluation method of anti-ship missile in range trial in condition of small sample based on simulation information

In order to evaluate the result of small sample anti-ship missile in range trial reasonably, this paper takes simulation information as prior information, analyzes the Bayes statistic and deduction method of small sample anti-ship missile in range trial. Bayes statistical decision model in synthetical assessment of anti-ship missile in range trial is built based on the multi-layer and multi-source prior information fusion theory. At last, a software is developed based on the theories and methods discussed above and the demand of the engineering practices. And this paper proves these theories and methods to be practicable by the preferable effect obtained in the trial of some actual type weapon and equipment.