连环恐怖袭击下危险品运输网络级联失效建模

研究危险品运输网络在遭受恐怖袭击后的级联失效过程和性质有助于指导系统建设和提高其抗毁性能. 在分析危险品运输网络及恐怖袭击特性基础上，建立了双层危险品运输网络模型，通过定义网络的三种节点状态，分析了单次和连环袭击下的危险品运输网络级联失效过程，基于此，建立连环袭击下的危险品运输网络级联失效模型. 从“结果性”和“过程性”两个视角出发，提出网络抗毁性的评价测度“节点存活率”和“相对二次级联失效数”. 通过建立实例仿真场景和仿真流程，就不同袭击次数、不同节点的度及容量系数和不同规划方式对危险品运输网络级联失效特性的影响进行仿真，验证了模型的可行性，仿真结果为危险品运输网络的规划提供决策依据.

Model of cascading failure in hazardous materials transportation network under series of terrorist attacks

To research the processes and features of cascading failure in hazardous materials transportation network (HMTN) after attacked by terrorist is helpful to guide system construction and improve its invulnerability. Based on the analysis of HMTN and characteristics of terrorist attacks, it established a two layers model for HMTN, and discussed the cascading failure process of HMTN under signal terrorist attack and series terrorist attacks by defining three types of node state. Based on this, it established the model of cascading failure in HMTN under series of terrorist attacks. From the perspective of "result" and "process", the invulnerability indicators and their calculation which are "node survival rate" and "number of the second relative cascading failure" were proposed. By establishing the scene and simulation flow chart, the different times of terrorist attacks, different node's degree, different capacity coefficient and different planning mode of HMTN under cascading failure were quantitatively researched. Simulation results show that the model is feasible, and which can provide decision basis to the planning of HMTN.