一种基于概率方法的中期冲突探测算法

中期冲突探测不仅可以提高飞行安全，还可以直接地增加空域利用效率。由于在实际的航路飞行中存在各种误差，导致航迹预测的不确定性，中期冲突探测结果也存在不确定性。根据两架飞机的相遇几何，并结合航迹预测的误差模型，定义了一种求解冲突概率的快速算法。通过仿真分析验证表明，该算法能有效地用于中期冲突探测。

An Algorithm Based on Conflict Probability for Mid-Term Conflict Detection

Mid-term conflict detection can not only enhance flight safety, but also can directly increase the efficiency of airspace. As in the actual flight route there exists all kinds of errors, which will result in uncertainty of trajectory prediction, as also the uncertainty of mid-term conflict detection. According to the encounter geometry of two aircraft, and combining with error model of trajectory prediction, then we define a fast algorithm for the solution of conflict probability. Through the simulation and analysis, it shows that the algorithm can be effectively applied to mid-term conflict detection.