全球变暖背景下青藏高原多年冻土分布变化预测

根据青藏高原及周边地区温度数据和多年冻土分布, 模拟2099年青藏高原多年冻土面积与各类多年冻土分布的变化情况。结果显示: 青藏高原地区在年均温升高1.8ºC的情况下, 大片多年冻土在高原西北部收缩至76.6°E 以东, 岛状多年冻土在高原东南部大面积消融, 高山多年冻土在帕米尔高原、喜马拉雅山地区收缩明显, 多年冻土总面积是现代的83.4%; 在年均温升高4ºC的情况下, 大片多年冻土收缩至77.4°E以东, 岛状多年冻土中部小范围退缩, 高山多年冻土在祁连山地区消融明显, 仅在帕米尔高原、喜马拉雅山山脉、祁连山山脉、横断山脉等高海拔山地发育, 多年冻土总面积是现代的73%; 在年均温升高6ºC的情况下, 大片多年冻土收缩至78°E, 岛状多年冻土仅在中西部发育, 高山多年冻土在部分极高山地区零星发育, 多年冻土总面积是现代的50.8%。

Prediction of Tibetan Plateau Permafrost Distribution in Global Warming

Area and condition variation of three kinds of permafrost in 2099 are simulated by integration of temperature data and modern permafrost distribution in Tibetan Plateau. The conclusions shows that in condition of 1.8ºC rising of annual average air temperature, the total area of permafrost will be 83.4% of today, the continuous permafrost will shrink to the east of 76.6°E, the sporadic permafrost melts greatly in southeast of plateau, and the mountainous permafrost has obvious degeneration in Pamirs and Himalaya Mountain area. While in condition of 4ºC rising of annual average air temperature, the total area of permafrost will be 73% of today, the continuous permafrost will shrink to the east of 77.4°E, the sporadic permafrost degenerates slightly in middle area, the mountainous permafrost melts greatly in Qilian Mountain, and it only could be found in some high altitude places such as Pamirs, Himalaya Mountain and Hengduan Mountain. In condition of 6ºC rising of annual average air temperature, the total area of permafrost will be 50.8% of today, the continuous permafrost will shrink to 78°E, the sporadic permafrost only could be found in middle-west area, the mountainous permafrost appeares in some extremely high area slightly.