| 一种新的水资源系统风险型决策方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 王建群.一种新的水资源系统风险型决策方法[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),1997,25(2):65-70. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王建群 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学水利水电工程学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 首先以水资源系统为背景，探讨了贝叶斯决策的观点，方法及传统贝叶斯方法的局限性，介绍了不精确解率分布的概念，定义，然后提出了基于有限状态空间不精确概率分布的风险型决策方法，指出了经典的效用函数决策方法及完全不确定型决策方法是该方法的两个特殊情形；最后给出演示该方法的算例。
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| 关 键 词： | 风险型 决策方法 水资源综合利用 决策论 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005/1/28 0:00:00 |
A New Method of Risk Based Decision Making in Water Resources System |
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| Wang,Jianqun.A New Method of Risk Based Decision Making in Water Resources System[J].Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences ),1997,25(2):65-70. |
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| Authors: | Wang Jianqun |
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| Institution: | College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering Mohai Univ.Nanjing 210098 |
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| Abstract: | Against background of water resources system, the method of conventional Bayesian decision making and the concept of imprecise probability distribution are discussed. A method of risk based decision making with imprecise probability destribution in the finite state space is proposed. An example of the use of the proposed method is given. |
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| Keywords: | Bayesian decision making imprecise probability distribution water resources |
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