我国产业结构、就业结构与人口迁移的仿真研究

本文研究发展过程中产业结构高度化导致的就业结构变化和人口城乡迁移,并建立以动态投入产出框架为主干的经济模型,与多维人口预测模型相耦合构成仿真系统,为了对迁移人口的规模及年龄,性别结构作内生化处理,文中提出了一种计算模式。系统对1985年至2000年的我国产业结构、就业结构和人口城乡迁移进行了多种方案的仿真试验并提出有关论断。

Production Structure, Employment Structure and Migration

A simulation system for multi-dimensional population submodel embedded in an economic model of dynamic input-output type is presented. The simulation output is intended to replicate China's situation in target-oriented development under various policy designs. The recursive accounting framework in the system is assembled with intra-period and inter-period blocks. The intra-period block determines the values of variables within each period (year) to be simulated while the inter-period one updates the values of certain variables between period intervals, the population (labor) and capital stocks being the most important such variables. With the passage of time, it is the demand structure that determines the production structure even though the aggregate growth rate is dependent heavily on the pace of investment in the productive capacity expansion. Therefore there must be changes in the overall ratio of the essential factors inputted. During the variation of the ratios, the essential factors among sectors will be reallocated. Migration is thus a shift of labor out of the primary production sectors. The model works out the age and sex distribution of the migrating population at the end of each period, and renews the overall population distribution and hence the labor force supply at the beginning of the next period. Several simulations are performed and the results concerning the development arelisted.