基于NL模型的北京公共交通票价对出行方式影响研究

利用SP(stated preference)调查挖掘了更多乘客选择出行方式时关注的因素，对比研究了MNL(multinomial logit)与NL(nest logit)模型机理，构建了更具适用性的交通方式选择NL模型，以北京市为例验证了模型的可靠性。应用模型分别探究了常规公交及地铁票价变化对乘客交通方式选择的影响。结果表明，随着常规公交票价的增加，0~10 km范围内常规公交出行者向私家车转移，10 km以上则会选择地铁出行；而随着地铁票价的增加，地铁出行方式的分担率明显下降，并导致公共交通分担率的下降。通过探究公共交通票价变化对乘客出行方式选择的影响，为北京市公共交通票价调整提出合理建议。

Research on the impact of Beijing public transportation fare on travel modal choice based on NL model

Stated preference(SP) survey has been conducted to explore the factors which are more passengers′ concerns when choosing traffic modes. With the comparative analysis of the multinomial logit(MNL) model and nest logit(NL) model, the NL model was selected due to its better performance on mode choice modeling. Taking Beijing as a case, the reliability of the model was verified. The impacts of the changes of bus and subway fares on passengers′ choice of transportation modes were studied respectively by using the proposed NL model. The results show that with the increase of bus fares, the regular bus travelers will transfer to private cars for trip within the range of 0~10 km, while those above 10 km will choose subway travel. Besides, with the increase of subway fares, the share rate of subway travel mode is obviously reduced, and thus leads to the decrease of public transport share rate. By exploring the influence of the changes of public transportation fares on passengers′ choice of travel modes, this paper provides reasonable suggestions for the adjustment of public transportation fares in Beijing.