| 基于ARIMA模型的福州市雷暴日趋势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘隽,张烨方,黄岩彬.基于ARIMA模型的福州市雷暴日趋势分析[J].华侨大学学报(自然科学版),2011(5):511-514. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘隽 张烨方 黄岩彬 |
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| 作者单位： | 福建省气象局; |
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| 基金项目： | 福建省福州市科技计划项目(2008-S-87) |
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| 摘 要： | 在分析ARIMA(p,d,q)预测模型的基础上,以福州市1961-2006年的雷暴日为时间序列基础,通过对该序列进行平稳性分析、差分处理、自相关、偏自相关系数计算与绘图、ARIMA建模、参数估计、假设检验及模型预测,将ARIMA模型运用在雷暴日的趋势分析上.研究结果表明,ARIMA能很好地拟合计算出未来短时段内的数据,...
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| 关 键 词： | 雷暴日 差分自回归移动平均模型 预测 短期 福州市 |
Fuzhou Thunderstorm Days Trend Analysis by the ARIMA Model |
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| LIU Jun,ZHANG Ye-fang,HUANG Yan-bin.Fuzhou Thunderstorm Days Trend Analysis by the ARIMA Model[J].Journal of Huaqiao University(Natural Science),2011(5):511-514. |
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| Authors: | LIU Jun ZHANG Ye-fang HUANG Yan-bin |
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| Institution: | LIU Jun,ZHANG Ye-fang,HUANG Yan-bin(Fujian Meteorological Administration,Fuzhou 350001,China) |
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| Abstract: | Paper is based on the analysis of auto regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model,leveraging historical thunderstorm day data of Fuzhou which was collected from year 1961 to 2006 to forecast the trend of thunderstorm day by stability analysis,differential treatment,autocorrelation,partial and autocorrelation coefficient calculation and drawing,ARIMA modeling,parameter estimation,hypothesis testing and predictions.Applying ARIMA model in the thunderstorm day trend analysis,the result indicates that AR... |
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| Keywords: | thunderstorm day auto-regressive integrated moving average model forecast short term Fuzhou City |
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