海上导管架平台可靠性分析抽样-模拟方法

在可靠性分析中，海洋平台的结构极限状态方程很难得到显式表达，用传统方法求解其可靠度指标时很难满足计算效率和精度要求．鉴于此，以胜利CB11F平台为例，通过试验设计的方法，选取部分结构响应．采用Kriging模型模拟了未知状态的结构响应，然后附以最优化的方法求解了导管架平台的可靠性指标，该方法综合了蒙特卡罗法和响应面法在计算上的优点，突破了大样本抽样计算量的制约，同时避免了因极限状态方程的不同表达而产生的影响，在很大程度上提高了计算效率和精度．

Sampling and simulation method for reliability analysis of offshore jacket platform

Reliability analysis of offshore platform is an important research trend for the performance of offshore structures.For jacket platforms,the Limit State Function(LSF) of structure is hard to have explicit expressions so that computational efficiency and accuracy are quite low by using traditional methods.Victory CB11F platform is taken as an example and a new sampling and simulation method is proposed to evaluate its structural reliability.The structural responses were simulated based on sampling ones by means of Kriging model and its reliability index was calculated by using optimization method.As a semi-parameter interpolation technique,Kriging model can avoid the restriction and the influence of different limit state functions and evaluate the structural response with high accuracy by combining advantages of both Monte-Carlo and response surface techniques.The stability and efficiency of this method are shown in the numerical example of Victory CB11F platform.