基于地理加权回归的福建省公路通车里程数研究

以福建省67个市县为研究对象,选取农民人均可支配收入、工业总产值、社会消费品零售总额为研究指标,构建地理加权回归(GWR)模型,并结合ArcGIS10.0和GeoDA等软件,对福建省各市县的公路通车里程数的空间分布趋势、局部空间自相关和主要驱动因素进行了分析研究。结果表明,农民人均可支配收入、工业总产值、社会消费品零售总额对公路通车里程数的影响程度在各市县地区存在差异,呈现了空间非平稳性。各市县的公路通车里程数,除了受地方政策等因素的影响外,确实还与所处的地理环境有关,总体上存在较为显著的空间相关性。

RESEARCH ON HIGHWAY TRAFFIC MILEAGE OF FUJIAN PROVINCE BASED ON GEOGRAPHICAL WEIGHTED REGRESSION

Take 67 cities of Fujian Province as the research object, we select farmers per capita disposable income, gross value of industrial output, social total retail sales of consumer goods index for the study. Furthermore, we use geographically weighted regression (GWR) method based on the ArcGIS10.0 and GeoDA software. We also and introduce the geospatial elements, space highway mileage of all cities and counties in Fujian distribution trends. The local spatial autocorrelation and the main driving factors were analyzed. The results show that the difference of influence degree of per capita disposable income of farmers, the total industrial output value, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the city and county area and the spatial nonstationarity. The city and county highway traffic mileage are affected by the local policy and other factors, which are also related to the geographical environment, there is a significant spatial correlation on the whole.