一类技术创新扩散模型的稳定性及其应用

简要回顾了创新技术扩散研究的发展过程,提出了一种基于两种不同群体之间成员流动的创新技术扩散动力学速度模型,并对该动力学模型进行了稳定分析,发现两群体之间不管存不存在人员流动,单向或双向流动,两群体成员数最终会趋向稳定.同时,该技术创新市场扩散也会达到一终值.并利用中国城镇和农村的固定电话用户数的数据进行了实证分析,取得了较为满意的结果.

The Stability Analysis on a Class of Innovation Diffusion Model and Its Application

With a briefly review to the developing process of the research for innovation diffusion,a dynamic rate model based on the members of two different colonies transferring between each other is formulated.And the members will trend to a few fixed numbers through a stability analysis on the model whether the members migrate or not.At the same time,an empirical analysis is also given with the data of telephone set consumers of china town and china country and a comparatively perfect conclusion is obtained.