高耗能高污染行业节能减排目标分解研究——以工业部门节能减排目标分解为例

节能减排目标合理的分解至高耗能高污染行业是工业部门实现"十二五"节能减排目标的关键,因此有必要探索节能减排目标分解方法,并据此对工业部门节能减排目标进行合理分解.研究基于VSBM-DEA(含理想决策单元的非径向DEA)模型提出单位产值节能减排空间的指标,并采用灰色模型GM(1,1)对其进行预测.在此基础上,结合能源恒等式,从"可能"与"计划"的角度出发对节能减排目标进行分解.最后运用2000—2010年两高行业的数据,将工业部门"十二五"节能减排目标进行分解,分析得出"十二五"期间两高行业的节能目标基本均匀分布,减排目标差距较大,应重点监控行业1、行业10.

Assignment of Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction Targets to High Energy Consumption and High Pollution Industries --Taking the Industrial Department for Example

Specific assignment of energy conservation and emissions reduction goals to high energy con- sumption and high pollution industries is essential for the industrial department to achieve the twelfth five --year plan aims of energy conservation and emission reduction,thus,it is necessary to explore the optimal method for assignment of energy conservation and emissions reduction goals, and by this method energy conservation and emission reduction targets could be appropriately assigned to the industrial department. Based on the model of VSBM-DEA （non-radial DEA with the ideal decision-making module）, the index of energy conservation and emission reduction space of unit output value is created, and the gray model GM （1,1） is used for predicting. In addition, combined with the energy equation, the targets of energy conserva- tion and emission reduction are specified from the perspective of＂possibility＂ and ＂plan＂. Finally based on the data of ＂two-high industries＂ from 2000 to 2010 ,the targets of energy conservation and emission reduc- tion of the industry department for the twelfth five-year plan is analyzed, and it is found that during the 12th five-year plan period the targets for the two high industries is well distributed,but there is a relatively large disparity between the goals,and industry 1 and industry 10 should be closely monitored.